Catastrophic conditions right here at home

Posted from Irrewillipe and Colac , Victoria .5am 10th January  2026  

As you can see , I don't get to this blog very often, There maybe better sites  to chase if you are seeking relevant risk information 

Well at least this morning ( Its after 4am in the morning on the 11th of January ) the news is ....as it happened. 

While the wind has died down now , the westerlies which came in after the northerlies on the 10th have prevailed a lot longer than expected.
Most of were surprised that there was so much lightning late on the 10th but we should have perhaps expected it.  . I was on Situation duty one night about 20years ago when 60 fires from lighting strikes were recorded by the three towers in the Otways, Those fires came to nothing but last night the lightning took out power and started the fires that have grown in the Gellibrand valley  south  of where we are ( main area of risk ) . Lightning cut power for water and communication and that normal risk should not be underestimated. 

  Nothing you read here is intended to condemn anyone because,  as even the most welcome new use of supercomputers means noone can accurately advise those living near bush in particular in some weather moments. There is IMO no risk to Colac township but seek more advice if you need convincing . 



























The Melbourne media and its political drivers may try to provide what they cannot, but we have always known its usually up to us here anyway and would always welcome more reasonable and truly local support. .

One day as the previous post states, our children may perhaps get their land and their wisdom about it back .  Thanks for the help from South Australia . 

We are now reasonably happy that those we love who cannot move either out or back in to protect their properties don't have to evacuate, but we hope there may some extra on ground assistance to protect their properties now that the main risk is gone for the moment.
We will take advice from the locals in charge in a few hours time. 
Fortunately for all the fires which started in the Gellibrand catchment ( that I know of ) there are not a lot of people likely to be affected with containment perimeters likely to established today . This is only my opinion .


Please where you can, and before you move anywhere, look up the Fire emergency website and other sites which feature wind speed and direction and humidity --like the ones in the column to the right,    There is safety in much advice .  
Please post helpful comments 

Competency in the country has been completely eroded

Hundreds, maybe thousands, of graduates in environmental sciences ( soils, water,  agriculture , pastures, crops, veterinary, medicine, gynecology, geomorphology geology)  used to be employed across the SW of Victoria in the days when I first started here in the 1980's,

Most of them and their positions of work are gone.


Yes custodians are left to fend for themselves, Many farmers are doing the work of 10 gynecologists delivering over 200 babies in a month, largely on their own. 

The grand career opportunities of graduates to master and know these environments and how to manage them for good is now lost: These 4 to 12 year hard studied's are denied the satisfaction of being useful. As we know here, anyone who learns to be a success out here can indeed change the world. Africa Middle east and the whole world miss out on OUR competent missionaries that might even save them warring.

The opportunity of this great country to help the producers and custodians of the ecosystems to move into even better resilience territory survival is now lost.

The knowledge base that underpins better management has been eroded. 
The ABC thinks it knows it all, but people in the country now switch it off, preferring even less well resourced agents who don't patronize us,   

Parliament should bow its head in shame at this reality of unrelenting stupidity and ignoranc about how to truly care for land and people.  

A whole generation of potential new helpers have never come now either.
The Parliament is all talk about competency and clever country but they listen to Greenlabor and offer our grads a grant  not even a job, never a career because who knows what the next solution to achieving net zero will be ( or even what net zero may mean ) .

Knowledge base 
At last count Over1 trillion dollars of gearboxes are to wear out before the target of 2050 ,forcing us in the meantime to burn up much more gas than Victoria can afford! There is lots more but you wont hear it on the ABC 
Careers and the common sense and mature judgement it can bring , it seems, are only now for politicians and public service heads. 

• There is something about mastering a skill that excites us here in the country but not those who dabble in it.
  We know science in practic ; ecoscience; the screen crowd know enough about real environmental risks to be easily spooked into doing nothing or everything by just any one of them. 
• There is something tyrannical, blind deaf and dumb in actions which rout our most productive communities.
• There is something self righteous (in science ) about those who rule, who think they have mastered something, when they clearly keep failing to pass basic science classes,  

Yes custodians are left to fend for themselves, Many farmers are doing the work of 10 gynecologist delivering over 200 babies in a month, largely on their own. 

Farmers can't afford vets and even rural based vets can't afford to work on farms, turning as they do in cities, to pets.  Something there about economic and ecological disadvantage? 
    
One of the largest veterinarians in the West had over 200 names on his interview list and he has had to give up trying to maintain that business and service the region because he can't get the right grads and can't get them to stay.
He is not the first totally professional and competent servant of the people to give up trying to help. 

• Think back to the thousands who have given up trying to be helpful out here in rural Victoria  
• Think of all the false friends from the city agents who talk patronizingly about helping, but don't listen to those who would keep the place at world's best practice; Whose quack medicine kills 
• Think about how little you have learnt from the ABC over the years about what works out here. Before you add another patronizer like Landline think about resilience and how it is and was our first love and not just a very pale and empty version of their real love.

My Vet friend above had been working his SW territory all his life and only bought out other vet practices in the hope he could keep the service to the community going by doing so ,

Not to be,
And he is in private practice.     Even those on a public service wage don' t stay.  

Think of all the people who commit suicide out here. 

Nothing drives people to kill themselves ( and others)  like not being listened to properly.
Did you get that Parliament? 

I am focusing on the disastrous impact of the Victorian and Federal government's failure to maintain credible competent voices on the Environment. 

This abrogation of duty to custodians has been going on for decades, leaving everyone out here to fend for themselves , Take my friend and many friends here trying to deliver 200 calves and deal with the  aftermath on their own in less than a month. 

The now lost crew of independent professionals USED TO provide fearless frank and competent advice on complex matters of risk management in both natural and agro-ecosystems. 

Greenlabor should be cancelled for their incompetence, and arrogance. 
They reckon they know enough to change the atmosphere and the world..   
God help them and God help us get rid of such tyrannical stupidity and arrogance.    



Even if properly qualified graduates stayed long enough to know, they learnt that they didn't know everything. but still had a role to play.    No chance of that now . 
Not even the ABC know this or have ever studied this matter properly.
Come on tell us they are really in touch !

Now only a struggling skeleton staff exist out here .

As Orwell would know, the worn out creatures are saving their energy for real work, not a place on the net and some committee . These people, as neither simple minded Shoemaker nor our ABC would not know are in a "no talk "mode. These people are so sick of trying to talk to the deaf--- they mostly gave up decades ago. 

The audience however still drinks the milk they produce for less than 50 cents a litre. 

The current Victorian and Federal government are a bunch of complete hypocrits when they claim to be prioritizing independent advice on such matters.  Their legacy on creating a more green world will just rot. 


History lesson 
The research centers, regional advisory and education bodies that once employed hundreds to be independent,  have been replaced by handout bodies corrupted by Greenlabor's  empty philosophies of change and how to get it. 
Such people fool themselves because the dependency culture they feed is very wasteful , poorly targeted , easily routed, unnecessary, ineffective , unjustified and with poor cost benefit;  therefore deeply and completely unsustainable.  

Canberra blithely and self righteously ( cause it does not work) fund heaps of " helpers " to come out here from other countries at great cost to the country, only to lose them to the city,
Unlike Canberra , these migrants are not stupid ; they too, don't want to live in the desert. 

We know this and have known it for decades, but most of the science naming sycophants in charge or filling up media spots couldn't pass a basic science test.  Unfortunately even the opposition cannot see where the dumbing down is coming from.   

They think they are the better economists. That's very patronizing since we all run businesses that pay ! and pay our way for imported goods by exporting goods. 



Even those paid privately by industry are really struggling . As i said , I met a big time vet out west who couldn't keep graduates and gave up trying to service his region,

Look around you - the only vets who can work here on country properties have to work harder than the farmers themselves.  
Imagine trying to deliver 200 cows on your own  -   not even doctors are now game to do it in regional areas. There is no support - all the resources are spent elsewhere and in handouts!

The dummies in Canberra are so lean, mean and incompetent they couldn't build the new road to Melbourne (Colac to Geelong) without stuffing it up.
Stool pigeons in the cities get big money because they manage budgets, Their budgets should be taken from them and given to professionals to make decisions( as used to happen)   

Why haven't you heard of this before?  Because we are all too busy, and dying off while our ABC joins the city in patronizing us ( Some might think there were enough feminists in there to resist such a thing ?) 

Join us in the revolt @RepresentingSW Victoria  Facebook

Give our children a graduate career that would satisfy them, help all husbander's win well and keep them in these fascinating environments. 

How are things at Apollo Bay ?

Because our so called public broadcaster is asleep at the wheel I 
published the latest news Here . 

Because the problem is bigger than the ABC  you need to listen right here also . https://youtu.be/2v8lq_vnklI 



The media don't know what they don't know and unfortunately
they are passing their
blinkeredness, blind cynicism , misanthropy and unrepentant incompetence onto our children.  

How are all these wind power mills going?

 Over the last day we have gone past 3 fields of wind farms from Cape Bridgewater to Yambuk  in the Western district .
 All the mills are Cape Bridgewater are stuck still with one fan breaking off as shown in the picture. Cranes are up replacing the 25 gearboxes at Yambuk as they have been doing in the newest mill fields at Mt Gellibrand 
Lots of the mills at Yambuk are leaking oil and lots of hydraulic cylinders  ( $80000 a pair ) are turning up at scrap metal merchants . . 
Nobody in their right minds expects these crude gearboxes to last very long. 

Question 4 polys ( just a few ) 

1. What is the standby payment for these things ( so often idle ) 
2. Who is paying for the replacement parts? 
   
3. What kilo watt per hour of heat are the gearboxes expected to dissipate ? 
4. Is anyone allowed to ask any questions about how we are going to power our toasters in particular in the morning?

Nothing like a good ride in the sunshine

 ..to counter the months of cloudy and wet that we have faced and face  over the next few months.. 

It seems we all like a good climb, especially the Mamils who occupied the steepest parts of the Tour de France yesterday . While the 850 metre climb to Marriners lookout is 17% , there are very few places in the Otways  where road grades are over 5% . Even the long steep road out of Adelaide up to Eagle on the hill has never been more than 5%.

 The popular bike ride  road from Lorne to the ridge ( slow down ) is a  consistent 5% . Colac is fun because few climbs are 3% and the climb are short .

It took a long time to get a road into Apollo Bay with that first road having a consistent grade of 4 % to make it easier for the horses . A bag of grain cost twice as much to carry up Wild dog as a passenger because the bag couldn't get out and push . The current road through Skenes Creek is not much less steep, but is less affected by landslides. 





LANDSLIDES maybe a natural feature of the area but our leaders still do not understand the risks with major avoidable and big landslides on the Skenes creek road and the new extension from GOR Cape Otway turnoff to Horden vale being in recent years . Ask me if you want the details . Clearly our current reps prefer to remain ignorant . 

Yes, its a good hope that we make less mistakes , and that our children understand the land and environment better so they can enjoy it rather than fear using or abusing it.

Early farmers were not the only ones to think flat areas halfway up hills was a good place to clear. I have had to say No to many wanting to build houses on the toes of the many big landslides like the above sites east of Wild dog river . and moving land on the Blue Johanna , the Heytesbury and along the coast . 

We shouldn't feel too bad about clearing, or even roadmaking , if we obey the understanding principles above. The tall timbered land east of Wild Dog River was busy moving in a big way long before any human being got near to Apollo bay. Now that we are all moving now more in the right direction we can still maintain the roads through this almost impossible country and do more drainage before the land is reafforested.

With understanding, the same applies to our work with road building. Some of the most sustainable roads in the wettest parts of the Otways ( wetter than France ) were built on very low grades with sound planning of crossfall and appropriate surface and cross drainage so that they will still be useful for our grandchildren ; eg Turton's track and access roads in the top of the West Barwon dam catchment .

YET  our Representatives still haven't learned the lessons they should have ,

TAKE THE WASTED recent EFFORTS TO IMPROVE OUR ROADS

VERY CLEARLY not enough surface cross drainage was used on the upgrade of the Princes Highway to Geelong and as the grass verges ( even in France as the footage shows ) have replaced graded edges, the need for more of that cross grade has increased.

If we had Provincial control of our own district , this slow ,error prone, ignorant and ineffective contract control of works@Joe McCracken @Bev McArthur MP @Sarah Henderson Richard Riordan MP Barnaby Joyce @Matt Canavan @ Dan Tehan MP would not be the huge and costly problem it now is.  @Representing South West Victoria

Our forefathers weren't as ignorant as we are now . They had to cope with clay surfaced roads that stopped all traffic. Even the flattest roads in the world need cross drainage and even some of the flattest roads can't be driven on when there is a bit of rain .

Please don't join the chorus of fools on the net and in Parliament who blame the weather.

The cost of water for our dams

 It 's mid November 2022(20th) and very few farmers in SW Australia have made hay or even silage.
 .
The weekly deluges highlight the very poor drainage of most of our soils and the impact of soil drainage and sun on slowing growth in springs like these. Farmers and cows can't get onto paddocks because they will get bogged. 
Our dams are full right across the SW of Australia with reservoirs like Dartmouth and the Thompson ( drought storages ) overflowing. It takes that rare time when soils are wet for the very rare flows in rivers. This is Australia Mate !

The only places I have seen with the bales done in our long trip through NSW and Victoria have been in well drained soils of Dune limestone in Warnambool ( picture here ) and a few places up near Mansfield . 

Those of us who have ever made hay in Australia know that the English expression " Make hay while the sun shines " is inadequate .
Most of Western Europe has better drained soils than ours. In the land of droughts and flooding rains, you get the mower out when it's still raining and even then you run high risks of losing it.
So much so that many farmers would leave hay making till this time of year when the weather was better , but the grasses had gone to seed and the feed quality poor.

Its a tough life so pay extra people . 

Our democracy is a complete mess

 I suppose I am not telling you, kind listeners, anything .
As one who used to be part of the system,  I know that it is not acceptable for councillors to say that they have no control.

 I hope what follows is at least helpful because that's what is needed to comprehend the mess and then do something positive to change it . Be can
do councillors .
 

Hundreds of examples in Colac Otway shire alone. And each case is really bad and unacceptably so because planning used to be a right and a blessing to good people doing the right thing and considering their neighbours in the shire.
It's got so bad that ONLY  those who have $50000 to gamble would try to run the gauntlet of our planning system  OUTRAGEOUS 

The above is the reason for my anger and this post
Common councillors -  continue the reforming process we have helped them start decades ago. 

I am forced to write this  TIME  this because of the difficulties of Andrew Beale to get a permit for use of a tram at his arts centre at Cooroooke. 
Where are the councillors talking about how they tried to resolve the conflict? 

 
When things go to a foreign court , we all have failed to make our community work ( that includes our Council and its office holders)

Things to change (  this is not a complete list - it will add to it if at least one councillor shows interest)
1. Reinstate ridings ( not perfect but better than pretending 7 people represent anyone except themselves ) IMO Councillor Costin was elected on this basis, even though a formal basis was not the rule. The criticism that people got elected to do things in their own area is not a good enough reason to permanent damage the process and its credibility. Let's face it if the road was made to your door these days, everyone would know about it on FB.  
While all 7 councillors do not have ridings we know that it's easy for no councillor to take any responsibility for what happens or to try and sort out the conflict in one area. This need not be so. First port of call if not the only councillor involved ! Otherwise who do we vote for?  
The loss of ridings was due to Small thinking small, so it's time to show more respect ( and a fuller less cynical logic ) for the increasingly unrepresented in OUR  regions. Let's be innovative , progressive and less cynical. 
2.  Rewrite overlay requirements    Call for the State to do it!
Colac Otway Shire about 10 years ago pioneered the reform of the overlay system. That is we citizens of Colac Otway were innovators of change at the State level Ammendment C70 .We can do it again.

3. Resist Nimbyism by meeting on site!  ( this is only going to happen easily if item 1 is adopted )


Let me not waste another word as I have not heard not a word from the incumbents who want to sit comfortably on their seats for 4 years. While this unnecessary fiasco remains.


And just in case you prefer to waste your time in meetings  over consultation  as was so well portrayed in "Utopia" reflect on a decades wasted  in chatter